[OKC] From today's Wall Street Journal - The Next Crisis: Prepare for Peak Oil

[Shauna Lawyer Struby]

In case you missed it . see the article below from today's Wall Street
Journal. 

 

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Details coming soon  at http://www.goinglocalokc.org.  About Transition Town
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now, and work together. 

 


The Next Crisis: Prepare for Peak Oil 


By Patience Wheatcroff


As Europe's leaders gather in Brussels today, they have only one crisis in
mind: the debts that threaten the stability of the European Union. They are
unlikely to be in any mood to listen to warnings about a different crisis
that is looming and that could cause massive disruption. 

A shortage of oil could be a real problem for the world within a fairly
short period of time. It was unfortunate for the group which chose to point
this out yesterday that they should have chosen to do so on the day the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, reported that the
effects of the financial downturn had led to a slight downgrade in its
forecast for oil consumption this year.

Against the gloomy economic backdrop that Europe currently provides, siren
voices shrieking that a potential energy crisis is imminent and could be
worse than the credit crunch are liable to be dismissed as scaremongers.
Since they are led by Sir Richard Branson, whose Virgin group runs an
energy-guzzling airline, and include Brian Souter, who runs Stagecoach,
another energy-hungry transport business, they are also at risk of being
seen as self-interested scaremongers. 

But the work of the Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security
shouldn't be disparagingly dismissed. Its arguments are well founded and
lead it to the conclusion that, while the global downturn may have delayed
it by a couple of years, peak oil-the point at which global production
reaches its maximum-is no more than five years away. 

Governments and corporations need to use the intervening years to speed up
the development of and move toward other energy sources and increased energy
efficiency. 

Highlights:

.         In the first report from the task force, Lord Ron Oxburgh, a
former chairman of Shell, wrote that "It is pretty clear that there is not
much chance of finding any significant quantity of new cheap oil. Any new or
unconventional oil is going to be expensive." He went on to quote King
Abdullah of Saudi Arabia commenting on a new oil find: "Leave it in the
ground...our children need it."

.         The latest report from the Taskforce points out how much modern
economies depend on oil, whether for transport, heating or even fertilizer.
Demand may have peaked in the developed world but any shrinkage there, is
likely to be more than outweighed by the developing countries, with their
rapidly expanding appetite for energy to fuel industry needs and consumer
aspirations. The International Energy Agency, in its World Energy Outlook
report last year, estimated global oil demand, currently running at just
over 85 million barrels a day, could reach 105 million barrels a day by
2030. The Taskforce, assimilating various opinions, believes 92 million
barrels a day will be the most that global supplies will be able to
generate, "unless some unforeseen giant, and easily accessible, finds are
reported very soon." 

.         According to Philip Dilley, the chairman of Arup, the consulting
engineers: "We must plan for a world in which oil prices are likely to be
both higher and more volatile and where oil prices have the potential to
destabilize economic, political and social activity."

Full article here :::
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704140104575057260398292350.ht
ml. 

Shauna, OKC

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P please don't print this e-mail unless you really need to

 

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