[OKC] Response to Bob's post regarding 2012 oil predictions.

[David Rushton]

I have just re-read the predictions that Bob referenced in a recent post http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2012/01/2012-predictions/ - and found myself wondering about the question of optimism vs pessimism in the sustainability community.  Being very optimistic about the future myself, I read the very pesimistic predictions by the peak oil community, and wondered if the sustainability community tends more towards optimism or pesimism.  

I realize that we face great challenges.  supporting an increasing population, in a sustainable manner - given the realities of climate change, peak oil, habitat destruction, etc. is going to be tough.  I think we can do it.  On the energy front, I am very excited about the strides that are being made in wind and solar.  Countries like Scotland are well on their way to supplying all of their electrical needs from renewables http://www.triplepundit.com/2012/01/scotlands-ambitious-100-clean-energy-target-2020/  The cost of electricity from pv panels is approaching grid parity.  It is very realistic to think that parity will be achieved some time in the next 10 years, and costs will keep coming down from there.  Natural gas is artificially cheap at the moment - but it will probably not stay at $2.50 bbtu for long.  I think it is a good bet that the PV industry will escape gravity some time in the next 10 years, and then we will see some big employment opportunities, as well as an economic uptick - as we start to keep more of our energy dollars at home. 

Are there any other thoughts on the question of optimism vs pesimism in the sustainability community?

Thanks.

David.
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