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<DIV><FONT size=4>80% of natural gas production and 98% of oil production in the
Gulf of Mexico remains off line. And so it comes to pass that even the
Bush administration is hopping on the energy conservation bandwagon. Is it
just me, or is the general response one big national yawn? I don't think
people will be yawning when they open their gas and light bills in
December.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4>The official line is "six months of pain", but really this is
only the opening stages of the coming decline in world oil production. The
decline in North American natural gas production is already here, despite the
huge amount of drilling -- the largest episode of natural gas drilling activity
in US history -- production remains in decline. This plateau period is
likely to be characterized by a lot of ups and downs, but over time the trend
will be up, not down. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4>We tore the boards off the south wall today, most of them
anyway, we took the brick off last week. Although of course the glass
isn't in, opening that wall up makes a really startling difference inside.
The utility room was added at a later date, and the room just north of it is the
kitchen, so there aren't any actual outside windows in the kitchen. THere are
however two doors with glass and two windows that formerly opened onto the
scenic view of the utility room, now we have a view all the way outside and it
brightens things up considerably.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4>We've decided what we're doing on glass, so work on the
passive solar sunspace continues apace. Hopefully the electricians will
finish their work this week, so we can have the first inspection, and then we
can start the insulation and drywalling. The point is to be snug as bugs
in rugs without high utility bills. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4>To do that we are (just to review): superinsulating -- R-33 in
the walls and R-50 in the attic. We installed double glazed, argon filled
windows, and put in new doors with weatherstripping. We are converting our south
facing utility room into a passive solar sunspace. A friend in Colorado
ran the figures for us, and his math says that with our superinsulation, and the
characteristics of our house (size, materials, etc), we can get most of our
winter heat from 106 sq ft of south facing glass. One unanswered question
in this experiment is how the heat will percolate through the house, we may have
to get a fan or two, but we'll see about that when the cold weather gets
here. We have also relined our chimney so we can use wood for backup heat,
and disconnected from the natural gas system entirely.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4>I strongly urge everybody to start right now to develop a plan
for making their own dwelling more energy efficient. Remember: as the
price of energy goes up, so does the price of energy conservation materials and
work. Insulation is more expensive this year than it was last year, and it
will be even more expensive next year than it is this year. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4>Many people get really hung up on the issue of "cost
effectiveness". Just remember that cost effecetiveness is in the mind of
the beholder. When we are finished, we will have a dwelling that will keep
us comfortable even if all of the utility services go down in a winter storm, or
due to a tornado elsewhere in the area, or a terrorist attack. Even though
it will be cold outside, we will be warm inside. How many reading this can
say the same thing? So what price should I or anybody else assign to that
kind of peace of mind? Especially folks that have kids.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4>And here's another aspect of "cost effectiveness." As
the price of energy increases, the amount of energy conservation that is cost
effective also increases. This of course is complicated a bit by the fact
that as energy increases in price, so does the price of energy conservation. So
your best bang for the buck is to insulate today, and not wait for
tomorrow. "Don't delay -- you'll pay".</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4>I also think that if you can only do one thing, the most
important thing to do is lots of insulation. Insulation, once installed,
just sits there and does its job, irrespective of whether or not the electricity
and natural gas are on. If you can't afford to superinsulate the entire
house, then superinsulate one interior room as kind of a "warmth
shelter".</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4>One final comment about the present situation: the rapid
run-up to $3.00+ gallon gasoline has opened the spigots on fuel stockpiles
worldwide. THis is possible because nearly every nation has been
squirreling away crude oil and refined products for the last several
years. It is somewhat dismaying to me that such a small increase (compared
to what is coming) in gasoline prices could cause people to open their
stockpiles. More used now means less available for later. There is a
limit to how much these stockpiiles hold, and I expect that as the realities of
the new energy regime become apparent, those stockpiles are going to be slammed
shut again, and politicians will be cursing behind closed doors because they
depleted them.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4>Three dollars a gallon is cheap for gasoline. The day is
coming when we will all think this.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4>Robert Waldrop, OKC</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4><A
href="http://www.energyconservationinfo.org">www.energyconservationinfo.org</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New"><BR></FONT><A
href="http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/10/3/12927/6582#more"><FONT
face="Courier New">http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/10/3/12927/6582#more</FONT></A><BR><BR><FONT
face="Courier New">October 3, 2005 <BR><BR>And it begins. . . the
government says (more deeply this time, <BR>and with feeling):
`CONSERVE!'<BR><BR>From the Comments section:<BR><BR></FONT><A
href="http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/03/news/economy/gasprices_bod"><FONT
face="Courier New">http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/03/news/economy/gasprices_bod</FONT></A><BR><FONT
face="Courier New">man/index.htm<BR><BR>Six more months of gasoline
pain?<BR>Energy Secretary tells paper that higher prices to continue;
<BR>shortages may be possible.<BR>October 3, 2005: 8:24 AM EDT <BR><BR>NEW YORK
(CNN/Money) - Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman <BR>has told a newspaper that
consumers can expect to see at least <BR>six months of high gasoline and heating
fuel prices until energy <BR>production recovers from hurricane damage.
<BR><BR>"We're going to go through a very challenging time the next six
<BR>months, is my guess," Bodman told USA Today in an interview <BR>pub-lished
Monday. "Both in terms of gasoline availability and <BR>(prices of) natural gas
and heating oil, we're going to have some <BR>problems."<BR><BR>Bodman warned he
didn't yet know the extent of damage done by <BR>Hurricane Rita to offshore oil
and natural gas platforms as well <BR>as Gulf Coast refineries and pipelines,
telling the paper it would <BR>take two to three more weeks to complete an
assessment. But <BR>he suggested there could be shortages depending on the
extent <BR>of damage.<BR><BR>"Most of us have viewed energy availability as a
kind of right of <BR>citizenship," he said, adding that Americans might have
rethink <BR>that attitude.<BR><BR>The U.S. Minerals Management Service reported
Friday that only <BR>2 percent of offshore oil production in the Gulf was back
in <BR>service, and only 21 percent of natural gas production is again
<BR>operating. In addition, roughly 20 percent of U.S. refining capacity
<BR>remains shut due to damage from either Hurricane Katrina on <BR>Aug. 29 or
Hurricane Rita, which hit Sept. 24.<BR><BR>While gasoline imports have helped
bring pump prices back <BR>below $3 a gallon on average nationally, importing
heating oil <BR>and natural gas is not as easy. Experts warn that there will be
a <BR>sticker shock for heating bills this winter, with prices rising by
<BR>about a third for those using heating oil and by two-thirds for the
<BR>majority of Americans who use natural gas to heat their homes.<BR><BR>Bodman
plans to detail a national energy conservation plan <BR>Monday, the paper
reported. Among other steps that the plan will <BR>include is asking Americans
to turn off lights, change thermostat <BR>settings, drive slower, insulate
homes.<BR><BR>Copyright 2005 CNN<BR><BR></FONT><BR><!-- |**|end egp html banner|**| --></DIV></DIV></BODY></HTML>