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<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
letter-spacing:1.0pt'><a href="http://www.terradaily.com/Climate_Science.html">CLIMATE
SCIENCE</a><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=bhl1><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Analysis:
Climate threatens U.S. security<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=bbl1><span style='font-size:8.0pt'>by Rosalie
Westenskow</span></span><span style='font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif"'><br>
<span class=bdl1>Washington DC (UPI) Feb 18, 2009</span></span><span
class=btx1><span style='font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=btx1><span style='font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=btx1><span style='font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>The
new head of U.S. intelligence and top adviser to President Barack Obama says <a
href="http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Analysis_Climate_threatens_US_security_999.html"
target="_top" id=KonaLink0><span class=klink><span style='color:blue'>climate change</span></span>
<span style='color:#0000A0;display:none;text-decoration:none'><img border=0
width=22 height=22 id="Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image001.gif@01C99278.3FD87150"
alt="http://kona.kontera.com/javascript/lib/imgs/grey_loader.gif"></span><span
style='color:windowtext;display:none;text-decoration:none'><o:p></o:p></span></a></span></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=btx1><span style='font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>is
a top threat to the national security of the country. <span style='color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>Poor
countries, often with weaker governance systems, also will be hit hardest by
the extreme flooding or dry spells forced by significant warming of the planet,
undermining leadership there and putting at-risk citizens further in harm's
way, warns Director of National Intelligence Adm. Dennis Blair. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>"The
impacts (of climate change) will worsen existing problems such as poverty,
social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership and weak
political institutions," Blair told senators last week. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>As
temperatures rise, scientists predict natural disasters like floods and drought
will also increase and government instability worldwide is likely to follow, he
said. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>These
outcomes have been predicted before, particularly in a 2007 report,
"National Security and the Threat of Global Climate Change," by the
Center for Naval Analyses, a non-profit research organization. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>"The
risks have increased in the last two years," CNA General Counsel Sherri
Goodman told United Press International. "The indicators of climate change
have increased, from melting in the arctic to the increases in droughts and
flooding to the wildfires in Australia and Greece." <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>Such events
cause instability in the affected regions by increasing water shortages and
health problems, among other things, Goodman said. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>In
Ethiopia, some experts say changing weather linked to rising global
temperatures has exacerbated the cholera epidemic, plunging the already
poverty-stricken nation further into turmoil. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>Many of the
places most likely to be hardest hit by changing weather patterns are also the
most politically unstable and economically troubled. For example, a series of
studies at Columbia University found the largest number of people exposed to
sea level rises live in China, the Philippines, Egypt and Indonesia; 64 million
people in China and the Philippines alone inhabit areas at risk for flooding if
sea levels rise as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
an international body of scientists that has released reports on the topic. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>All these
factors combine to pose serious national security risks for the United States,
said Gen. Gordon Sullivan, former Army chief of staff and chairman of the
military advisory board for CNA's climate-change report. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>"It's
a threat multiplier," he told UPI. "Places that will be hit are
already hard hit." <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>The list of
areas predicted to be dramatically affected by climate change isn't small,
either; it includes almost all of Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East,
said Kent Butts, director of the National Security Issues Group at the U.S Army
War College, a training facility that prepares military officers and civilians
for strategic leadership positions. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>The
potential geopolitical problems that could result from climate change range
from mass migrations to civil wars and decreased <a
href="http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Analysis_Climate_threatens_US_security_999.html"
target="_top" id=KonaLink1><span class=klink><span style='color:blue'>agricultural</span></span></a>
productivity to the spread of terrorist groups, Butts said. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>These
resulting disasters would follow a long chain of events, Butts explained.
First, climate-induced disasters, like droughts, could create resource
shortages or force people from their homes. Lack of food, water and/or shelter
would likely create social unrest, leading to potential political upheaval,
making room for extremist movements to take over the government. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>This can
happen anytime a government can't satisfy the basic needs of its citizens,
Butts said, pointing to the 2006 political victory of Hamas, an extremist
organization that won the majority of seats in the Palestinian parliamentary election
that year. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>However,
climate change could make political turnovers much more common by making it
more difficult for governments to maintain economic and social normalcy, Butts
said. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>"When
a government can't meet the needs of its people, it lays out a welcome mat for
Islamic extremism," he said. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>Terrorists
can take advantage of climate change in other ways as well, including using the
issue as fuel to garner support and turn people against Western nations,
particularly the United States. That's because many terrorists "preach
that climate change is largely the result of capacious consumption of energy
resources by the West and that the impacts fall on Muslim people," Butts
told UPI. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>In fact,
Osama bin Laden included a message to this effect in a 2007 videotaped
statement. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>It's not
just terrorists, though, who recognize the industrialized world's hand in
spurring on climate change. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>Developed
nations are responsible for 70 percent of the world's carbon dioxide <a
href="http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Analysis_Climate_threatens_US_security_999.html"
target="_top" id=KonaLink2><span class=klink><span style='color:blue'>emissions</span></span></a>
from 1950 to 2000, according to the World Resources Institute, but are also
expected to be less severely impacted by changing weather patterns. As a
result, these richer nations should help poorer countries adapt to a changing
world, said Marc Levy, deputy director of the Center for International Earth
Science Information Network at Columbia University. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>"We
really need to come up with some kind of international adaptation mechanism,"
Levy said. "Since the wealthy countries emitted all the carbon that's up
there, they have the moral obligation to help other countries." <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>Some
measures have been taken to address the problem, both from the adaptation and
mitigation standpoints. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>In January
2008 Congress passed legislation requiring the next National Security Strategy
and National Defense Strategy consider risks posed by climate change to
Department of Defense facilities, capabilities and missions. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>According
to Sullivan, who worked on the CNA report, military officials "are well
aware of the fact that destabilization caused by climate change is very
important Â… (and they) are considering the implications of climate
change, like drought, flooding and failed states." <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>The
international community is gearing up to draft the next international agreement
on greenhouse emissions this December in Copenhagen, Denmark, and many experts
predict the treaty will include binding targets to reduce heat-trapping gases.
The Obama administration has also advocated the implementation of a domestic
cap-and-trade system that would limit the amount of carbon dioxide emissions
U.S. businesses could send into the atmosphere. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'>(e-mail: <a
href="mailto:rwestenskow@upi.com">rwestenskow@upi.com</a>) <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Corbel","sans-serif"'><a
href="http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Analysis_Climate_threatens_US_security_999.html">http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Analysis_Climate_threatens_US_security_999.html</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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