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<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>I have just re-read the predictions that Bob
referenced in a recent post <A
href="http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2012/01/2012-predictions/">http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2012/01/2012-predictions/</A> -
and found myself wondering about the question of optimism vs pessimism in the
sustainability community. Being very optimistic about the future myself, I
read the very pesimistic predictions by the peak oil community, and wondered if
the sustainability community tends more towards optimism or pesimism.
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>I realize that we face great challenges.
supporting an increasing population, in a sustainable manner - given the
realities of climate change, peak oil, habitat destruction, etc. is going to be
tough. I think we can do it. On the energy front, I am very excited
about the strides that are being made in wind and solar. Countries like
Scotland are well on their way to supplying all of their electrical needs from
renewables <A
href="http://www.triplepundit.com/2012/01/scotlands-ambitious-100-clean-energy-target-2020/"><FONT
size=3
face="Times New Roman">http://www.triplepundit.com/2012/01/scotlands-ambitious-100-clean-energy-target-2020/</FONT></A>
The cost of electricity from pv panels is approaching grid parity. It is
very realistic to think that parity will be achieved some time in the next 10
years, and costs will keep coming down from there. Natural gas is
artificially cheap at the moment - but it will probably not stay
at $2.50 bbtu for long. I think it is a good bet that the PV industry
will escape gravity some time in the next 10 years, and then we will see some
big employment opportunities, as well as an economic uptick - as we start to
keep more of our energy dollars at home. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Are there any other thoughts on the question of
optimism vs pesimism in the sustainability community?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Thanks.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>David.</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>