[OKC] Searching for a miracle: Net energy limits and the fate of industrial society

[Shauna Struby]

The report below is a must-read for understanding the complex place humanity
now finds itself. "Net energy" is an absolutely essential factor in short,
mid and long-term planning for energy transitioning. Hat tip to Christine
Patton for the heads up on this.

 

I believe the those of us working in the sustainable and transition
movements need to understand net energy so we can not only incorporate it
into our own individual energy transition plans, but also ensure that plans
for our neighborhoods, communities and cities, and those making policy, also
factor net energy into planning.

 

And it's an important element media entities need to ask about with regard
to any proposed solution or combination of solutions - whether natural gas,
nuclear, solar, wind, biomass and so on. 

 

Searching for a Miracle: 'Net Energy' Limits & the Fate of Industrial
Society

by Richard Heinberg and Jerry Mander 

 

Perhaps the most significant limit to future energy supplies is the "net
energy" factor-the requirement that energy systems yield more energy than is
invested in their construction and operation.

THIS REPORT IS INTENDED as a non-technical examination of a basic question:
Can any combination of known energy sources successfully supply society's
energy needs at least up to the year 2100? In the end, we are left with the
disturbing conclusion that all known energy sources are subject to strict
limits of one kind or another. Conventional energy sources such as oil, gas,
coal, and nuclear are either at or nearing the limits of their ability to
grow in annual supply, and will dwindle as the decades proceed-but in any
case they are unacceptably hazardous to the environment. And contrary to the
hopes of many, there is no clear practical scenario by which we can replace
the energy from today's conventional sources with sufficient energy from
alternative sources to sustain industrial society at its present scale of
operations. To achieve such a transition would require (1) a vast financial
investment beyond society's practical abilities, (2) a very long time-too
long in practical terms-for build-out, and (3) significant sacrifices in
terms of energy quality and reliability.

 

Perhaps the most significant limit to future energy supplies is the "net
energy" factor-the requirement that energy systems yield more energy than is
invested in their construction and operation. There is a strong likelihood
that future energy systems, both conventional and alternative, will have
higher energy input costs than those that powered industrial societies
during the last century. We will come back to this point repeatedly.

 

The report explores some of the presently proposed energy transition
scenarios, showing why, up to this time, most are overly optimistic, as they
do not address all of the relevant limiting factors to the expansion of
alternative energy sources. Finally, it shows why energy conservation (using
less energy, and also less resource materials) combined with humane, gradual
population decline must become primary strategies for achieving
sustainability.

 

Full report here ::: http://www.energybulletin.net/node/50695. 

 

 

Shauna, OKC

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P please don't print this e-mail unless you really need to

 

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