[OKC] Drought update

[Bob Waldrop]

“This just in” from the Oklahoma Farm News . . . 100 days of 100+ heat, drought continues, clock is ticking for the 2012 wheat crop.

As I said in my bobaganda this month, now is a good time to stock up on food.  http://bobaganda.blogspot.com 

Bob Waldrop, OKC

      Oklahoma Crop Weather Update - La Niña Returning 
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      In the latest Crop Weather Update, the issue of La Niña was up for discussion, saying- "All indications from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) show a gradual strengthening of La Niña throughout the fall and into the winter. This may mean above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation from late fall into the early spring for drought stricken Oklahoma and the southern plains region. September kicked off with welcomed relief with high temperatures for all districts ranging from 87 to 82 degrees. Even with the break in temperatures severe drought conditions still limited wheat and other fall planting. Topsoil moisture conditions continued to decline, with 86 percent of the state rated very short. Subsoil moisture conditions dropped slightly to 88 percent rated very short." 
      For our spring-planted crops, according to the USDA- "Seedbed preparations increased slightly but small grain planting was limited as little precipitation was received across the state. Seedbed preparation for wheat ground was 55 percent complete by week's end, just 13 points behind normal. Rye ground plowed was 90 percent complete and 45 percent of seedbeds were prepared by Sunday, 26 points behind the five-year average. Plowing of oat ground was 93 percent complete with 42 percent of seedbeds prepared. Canola seedbed preparation reached 67 percent complete by the end of the week, up 17 points from the previous week."

      "Crop condition ratings remained mostly very poor for most crops. Any remaining crops were struggling or salvaged for hay or silage. Peanuts were rated mostly fair. Of the corn still in the fields, 83 percent was mature and 56 percent had been harvested by week's end. Sorghum heading reached 89 percent complete, coloring was 50 percent complete, 23 percent was mature, and seven percent was harvested by Sunday. Soybean blooming was 91 percent complete, 70 percent were setting pods, and six percent was harvested by week's end. Peanuts setting pods reached 89 percent, and 10 percent were mature by Sunday, 23 points behind normal. Cotton reached 87 percent setting bolls, 13 points behind normal. Boll opening reached 20 percent complete by week's end, 15 points behind the five-year average." 

      Hay production continued to fall behind normal with conditions rated mostly very poor for all hay. Second cuttings of alfalfa were 95 percent complete and third cuttings were 44 percent complete by the end of the week, 56 points behind normal. Second cutting of other hay reached 40 percent complete by Sunday, 24 points behind the five-year average. 

      Click here for the complete Crop Weather Update for Monday, September 12, 2011 
     

      One Hundred 100s- and Rain May Finally Arrive 
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      Grandfield made it official on Monday, putting the cherry on top of the "days at or above 100 degrees" record for Oklahoma at an even, well ONE HUNDRED. Just another of the extremes we've seen this summer and year. Recall that the previous record was 86 days from Hollis in 1956. Not only has Grandfield utterly destroyed that record this year, other southwestern Oklahoma towns Altus, Hollis, Mangum, and Tipton have exceeded that 86 days mark (and Walters is on the verge). 
      There's a chance that many of these communities could add one more century mark reading to its meteorological achievements today- before a big change in the weather patterns arrive. From the weather discussion coming from the boys in Norman this morning- "A much stronger front will arrive Wednesday into Wednesday evening as a shortwave/upper low moves across the Great Lakes region. As an upper low/trough over the southwestern states moves East- precipitation will become likely across a large part of the southern plains Wednesday night into Thursday. Clouds and relatively cool air behind the front will result in very cool high temperatures for mid September. Clouds and precipitation on Thursday will likely keep most areas in the 60s with some 70s possible south." 

      Chances of precipitation jump well over 50% in a lot of the state Wednesday night into Thursday. In his email communication- Gary McManus describes the possibilities- "Speaking of rainfall, we've been promised some lovely wet, gray days during this week. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center shows a 5-day precipitation forecast of greater than in inch in southwestern Oklahoma. This is something concrete to hope for." 

      I emailed Gary about this long "Hydro" word- and he sears its a real word- what we are hoping for is real rain- real soon. 

      Click here for a rainfall prediction map from the mesonet folks for later this week for Oklahoma. 
     


OSU's Dr. Derrell Peel says The Clock is Ticking Away on Winter Wheat Pasture Prospects 
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The window of opportunity for planting winter wheat for grazing is rapidly closing. According to Dr. Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, in Oklahoma, dual-purpose or forage-only winter wheat generally needs to be planted by mid-September in order to produce significant fall and winter forage. Wheat planted for grain-only has about another month to be in the ideal planting window. 

It will take two to three significant moisture events in order to establish and support fall wheat forage growth and the first of those events needs to happen in the next week or so. There is some chance for limited rain showers this coming week which likely represent the last chance for early planting of wheat for forage. 
Winter wheat grazing normally supports a large winter stocker industry in Oklahoma. The January 1 estimate of feeder cattle outside of feedlots has averaged about 2.3 million head the last ten years. This value includes roughly a million head of stocker cattle that are brought into Oklahoma for winter grazing in addition to stocker cattle retained from Oklahoma's 1..9 million head calf crop. These in-shipments of cattle will be drastically reduced given current prospects for winter wheat pasture. 

The extreme drought conditions has resulted in severely reduced hay and pasture production and now seems likely to limit winter wheat forage to a small fraction of normal production. Many calves in Oklahoma have already been marketed as early weaned calves and have moved to feedlots or to better forage out of state. That fact, combined with few calves brought in as stockers may result in an Oklahoma feeder supply on January 1, 2012 that is down by one million head or more. 

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